10.3.2 Relation between genetic contribution and inbreeding

In other words, decisions about mating intensity of selected parents made today can have large consequences for future generations. Once the contribution of an animal has spread through the population you can never delete it again. It is possible the take the genetic contribution of each breeding animal into account when predicting the rate of inbreeding. This is an accurate method for predicting the rate of inbreeding, but only if the contributions of the animals that founded the population are considered.  When only contributions of more recent animals are considered the relatedness between those animals is ignored. Consequently, in that case the resulting rate of inbreeding will be an underestimation of the true rate of inbreeding.

In formula the influence of the genetic contribution of animals to the rate of inbreeding looks like:

Open

Where ΔF is the rate of inbreeding due to the genetic contribution of the animals that are considered, and c² is the contribution of an animal to the next contribution, squared. This formula can be used to predict the rate of inbreeding in the future, given mating intensity decisions today!