9.13 Key issues on predicting response to selection (2024)

Breeding is about predicting the future.

Predicting genetic gain is about predicting future performance, but also about evaluating breeding decisions beforehand.

Genetic gain is determined by 3 main factors: phenotypic variance, accuracy of selection, and selected proportion.

The generation interval allows to express genetic gain per year instead of per generation.

Optimising genetic gain will require a balance between increase in accuracy and decrease of the generation interval.

Selection paths allow for difference in selected proportion and accuracy of selection in males and females.

Decisions on the intensity of selection depend on the consideration of genetic gain versus rate of inbreeding.

Genomic selection is a very good solution when traits are difficult to measure or expensive to record.

Predicting genetic response to selection assuming a selected proportion and an accuracy of selection is very useful, but be aware of the (lack of) accuracy of your assumptions!