13.8 Future expectations: where to go from here?

Breeding is about predicting the future. Changes in your breeding program made today will only show in a few generations from now. Of course it is not possible to predict the future in detail, but it is possible to foresee some general changes. For example, will there be changes in legislation in the near future that will affect your product? Changes in legislation with respect to housing, for example, will influence the type of animal that you will need to produce. Animals that have always been selected for being housed alone that suddenly need to live in groups most likely will not be very successful. Likewise, if export legislation is going to be changed, the breeding company needs to be aware of that. If de-horning, or tail docking, or beak trimming is no longer allowed, the breeding companies need to have selected animals that will manage well without those interventions.

Legislation

Notification of a change in legislation usually is made well in advance. However, changes in the market are much less predictable. What is the economic situation of your clients going to be like in the future? And will the market keep on demanding chicken breast or will it shift towards intact carcasses, for example? Will dressage remain as popular as it is today or will the new equine star rider be a show jumper or an eventer, resulting in an increased demand for those horses? Predicting the market changes is a profession on its own.

Related to the market demand is the market share. If your breeding program is successful your market may expand. Are you prepared for the new demands of that market? For example, if you start to sell to other parts of the world, are the animals that are required there the same as are required here? Is there a genotype by environment interaction to be expected? If so, how big is it? Do you need to create a new population for that purpose or can you manage with your current population? Is it possible to select your animals here or do you need to select your animals close to where your new market is so that they can adapt to the new environment?

Market developments

And what is your market position in relation to your competitor? Are you operating in the same market or can you go for a different market? What are your strong points and what are the strong points of the product of the competitor? It is important to have a good impression of the market as a whole: what is the demand,  who are players on the market, what are their plans, what is the quality of your product, etc.

Science and technology

A final component that you have to keep an eye on are new developments in technology. New technology may make things possible that were not possible before. But, at least as important, if your competitor is using the technology and you are not, you may lose your advantage and then market share and then go out of business. It, therefore, is important to incorporate new technology related to, for example, measuring complex phenotypes or estimating breeding values using genomic information, even before it is completely clear what the benefits are. Because if you don’t use it and your competitor does, and it appears to be a beneficial technology, you are too late. You will have lost the lead you may have kept if you would have used the technology from the start. In practice this is what you see happening a lot. New technologies are adopted before it is completely clear how beneficial they will be, because the competitors are using it too. To avoid being too late, it is important to jump in in time.